North Carolina Just Became America's #1 Migration Destination. Here's Why It Matters

Something significant shifted in American migration patterns this year, and most people haven't noticed yet.

According to U.S. Census Bureau data released this week, North Carolina attracted more new residents—84,000 people—from other parts of the country than any other state in 2025. That's a title Texas held in 2024 and Florida held for the two years before that.

Meanwhile, Florida dropped to #8 for state-to-state migration. Texas barely held onto second place with 67,300 domestic migrants. And South Carolina, not one of the usual suspects, claimed the highest overall growth rate at 1.5%.

This isn't just a statistical curiosity. This is a fundamental reordering of where Americans are choosing to build their lives. And for anyone buying, selling, or investing in real estate, understanding why this shift is happening tells you everything about where opportunity is moving next.

Let me walk you through what's driving this change, why the traditional "hot markets" are cooling, and what this means for real estate decisions in 2026 and beyond.

The Numbers That Changed the Map

According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures, the migration story of 2025 looks nothing like recent years.

North Carolina: 84,000 net domestic migrants (new #1)
Texas: 67,300 net domestic migrants (#2, down from #1)
South Carolina: 66,600 net domestic migrants (#3, highest growth rate at 1.5%)
Florida: Dropped to #8, with domestic migration falling from nearly 319,000 in 2022 to just 22,500 in 2025

These aren't small changes. This is a complete reshuffling of where Americans want to live.

North Carolina state demographer Mike Cline explained the shift directly: "North Carolina is attracting younger folks because we have so many nice areas in North Carolina—the mountains and beaches and lakes in between—that we're benefiting from younger people who decided they can work from anywhere and would rather be in a nice area. One of the things about North Carolina, our cities are not huge, and that may be attractive to folks, too."

Translation: The pandemic permanently changed how people think about where to live. And North Carolina hit the sweet spot of affordability, quality of life, and economic opportunity.

Why Florida and Texas Are Losing Their Edge

For years, Florida and Texas were the default answers to "where should I move?" Low taxes, warm weather, booming job markets—the pitch was compelling.

But that story is changing fast.

Florida's Dimming Appeal

Florida's domestic migration collapsed from 319,000 people in 2022 to just 22,500 in 2025. That's a 93% drop in three years.

According to demographer Stefan Doty, several factors explain Florida's decline:

Housing costs: "The cost of housing, in particular, is driving young people and retirees to other states," Doty noted. Florida is no longer the bargain it once was.

Insurance costs: Florida's insurance rates are higher than most other states, adding significant ongoing expense to homeownership.

Hurricane risk: A series of major hurricanes has made both insurance and rebuilding costs prohibitive for many residents.

Return-to-office mandates: As companies require workers back in offices, the remote work flexibility that made Florida attractive during the pandemic has faded for many.

One couple's story illustrates the shift: Sabrina Morley and Steven Devereaux sold their Tampa-area house last year and moved to Valencia, Spain. As they planned to have children, they grew wary of Florida's costs, school safety concerns, education quality, and political divisiveness.

"I had a pretty good childhood, but I don't think we'd be able to give our child the same quality of life because of the cost of living, food quality, and guns have become more prevalent," Devereaux explained.

They're expecting a daughter this spring—in Spain, not Florida.

Texas's Slowing Momentum

Texas still ranks second for domestic migration, but the 67,300 people who moved there in 2025 is a significant slowdown from previous years.

Texas state demographer Lloyd Potter pointed out that conditions outside the state influence migration as much as conditions within it: "If jobs are plentiful, living is affordable, and the overall quality of life is good, they will be less likely to move for an opportunity outside that community."

In other words, as other states become more competitive on jobs, affordability, and quality of life, Texas loses its unique advantage.

The Texas economy is still growing, but it's no longer the only game in town.

What Makes North Carolina Different

North Carolina didn't just win by default. It won because it offers what today's buyers—especially millennials and Gen Z—are actually looking for.

Affordability That Still Exists

According to recent data, North Carolina's median home value sits around $277,000, well below the national average of $319,000 and dramatically below markets like California ($713,000) or even many Florida metros.

In Charlotte, one of the state's most expensive markets, the median home price is still around $224,000 according to recent Zillow data. Raleigh and Durham offer similar relative affordability compared to coastal markets.

Cyrus Mojdehi, a homebuilder who relocated from New York to Charlotte, emphasized this advantage: "One of our focuses is on building the most affordable new home in the market. In other cities, you either don't have available land, or the land is so expensive that it's impossible to make the numbers work. Here, you still have demand, land availability, and a cost structure that allows for new construction at more accessible price points."

Geographic Diversity

North Carolina offers mountains, beaches, and everything in between. For remote workers and retirees who can live anywhere, that diversity matters.

You can ski in the morning and be at the beach by evening (theoretically, though it would be a long day). You can live in a vibrant mid-sized city like Charlotte or Raleigh, or retreat to smaller communities with lower costs and quieter lifestyles.

Mid-Sized Cities, Not Megacities

As Cline noted, "One of the things about North Carolina, our cities are not huge, and that may be attractive to folks, too."

Charlotte and Raleigh offer big-city amenities without the overwhelming scale, traffic, and cost of places like Los Angeles, New York, or even Miami and Austin.

For millennials starting families and Gen Z workers entering the job market, that balance of opportunity without chaos is increasingly appealing.

Strong Job Markets

According to recent economic data, North Carolina's job opening rate of 5.3% surpasses the national rate of 4.5%, signaling robust economic vitality.

The Research Triangle (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill) has become a tech hub. Charlotte is a major banking and finance center. And the state continues attracting corporate relocations from higher-cost regions.

Housing Supply That's Actually Increasing

In 2023, North Carolina authorized 4.7 new housing units for every 1,000 existing homes—significantly higher than the national average of 2.5 per 1,000.

This proactive approach to construction helps prevent the inventory shortages that have choked markets like California and parts of the Northeast.

The Long-Term Implications

North Carolina's population surge isn't a blip. According to the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, the state's population is projected to reach 11.7 million by 2030 and 15.4 million by 2060—an increase of roughly 4.3 million people over the next few decades.

That sustained growth creates compounding effects:

Tax base expansion: More residents mean more tax revenue for infrastructure, schools, and services.

Economic dynamism: Population growth drives demand for goods, services, and jobs, creating self-reinforcing economic momentum.

Political influence: The population shift signals potential changes in political landscapes, with North Carolina likely gaining congressional seats and Electoral College votes after the 2030 census.

For real estate, this matters because sustained population growth supports home values, creates rental demand, and justifies new construction—all factors that make investing and buying in growth markets more attractive.

What This Means If You're Buying

If you're considering where to buy a home, the North Carolina migration story offers clear insights.

Why North Carolina Markets Make Sense

Supply and demand fundamentals: With 84,000 new residents annually and strong housing construction, North Carolina markets offer balance. You're not competing in markets with explosive demand and zero supply (California coastal markets) or markets with oversupply and waning demand (parts of Florida and Texas).

Appreciation potential: Sustained population growth supports steady, predictable home value appreciation. Markets like Charlotte and Raleigh are projected to see 1.4% to 2.8% home price growth through 2026—not explosive, but stable and sustainable.

Affordability relative to salaries: With job opening rates higher than the national average and home prices below national averages, the income-to-housing-cost ratio in North Carolina is more favorable than most high-growth markets.

Quality of life: If you're going to live somewhere long-term, North Carolina offers geographic diversity, mid-sized city benefits, and lower cost of living without sacrificing opportunity.

But Don't Assume It's Cheap

North Carolina's affordability advantage is relative. According to JP Morgan Chase analysis, housing affordability in Charlotte won't return to historical norms until Q2 2028 assuming no change in mortgage rates, or Q4 2026 assuming a 1% drop in rates.

Home prices in Charlotte have risen significantly, and while still below coastal markets, they're no longer the bargain they were five years ago.

If you're buying in North Carolina, you're still dealing with a competitive market. But it's competitive in a healthy way—not the feeding frenzy of 2021-2022.

Markets to Watch

According to recent forecasts, some of North Carolina's fastest-growing housing markets include:

Kinston, Jacksonville, Sanford: Seeing robust price growth, indicating strong demand outside the largest metros.

Charlotte: Expected 2.8% home price growth through 2026, with continued corporate relocations driving demand.

Raleigh-Durham: Projected 1.4% growth, with the Research Triangle's tech economy supporting long-term stability.

Coastal areas: Benefiting from retirees and remote workers seeking lifestyle and geographic diversity.

What This Means If You're Selling in Florida or Texas

If you own property in Florida or Texas, the migration slowdown doesn't mean you should panic. But it does mean you need to adjust your strategy.

Florida Sellers: Price Aggressively

With domestic migration down 93% from 2022 levels, Florida markets are seeing increased inventory and longer days on market. According to recent data, the median Miami house spent 69 days on market in December 2025—well above the national median of 47 days.

If you're selling in Florida, don't price based on 2022 peak values. Price based on current buyer demand, which is significantly lower than it was three years ago.

Homes that are priced realistically will still sell. Homes priced based on what sellers think the market "should" be will sit.

Texas Sellers: Understand Your Specific Market

Texas is large and diverse. Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio are all experiencing different dynamics.

Markets that saw explosive pandemic-era growth (Austin particularly) are seeing corrections. Markets with more stable growth patterns are holding better.

Understand your local market. Don't assume that because Texas ranks #2 nationally, your specific neighborhood is automatically strong.

The Opportunity: Trading Up

If you're selling in Florida or Texas to move to North Carolina, you're likely trading a more expensive or stagnant market for a more affordable, growing one.

That can create financial flexibility. Selling in Florida and buying in Charlotte might free up significant capital while maintaining or improving quality of life.

But run the numbers carefully. Transaction costs, moving expenses, and market timing all affect whether the trade makes financial sense for your situation.

What This Means for Investors

For real estate investors, the North Carolina migration story creates specific opportunities and risks.

The Growth Markets Are Obvious

With sustained population growth, strong job markets, and housing construction that's meeting demand without oversupplying, North Carolina metros offer predictable investment fundamentals.

Cash flow in rental markets should remain stable with strong tenant demand. Appreciation potential is steady without the boom-bust volatility of some coastal markets.

But Competition Is Real

Other investors see the same data you do. North Carolina isn't a hidden gem anymore—it's the headline story.

That means you're competing for deals in an environment where everyone knows the market is strong. Finding value requires local expertise, not just following national trends.

The Diversification Play

If your real estate portfolio is concentrated in Florida or Texas, the migration shift suggests diversification into North Carolina or South Carolina could reduce exposure to markets experiencing demographic headwinds.

You don't need to exit Florida or Texas entirely. But rebalancing toward growth markets makes strategic sense.

What This Means for the Broader Market

The North Carolina migration story is part of a larger pattern: Americans are prioritizing affordability, quality of life, and opportunity balance over the traditional "move to the big booming market" mentality.

The End of One-Size-Fits-All Migration

For decades, the pattern was simple: people moved to the Sun Belt for jobs, weather, and low taxes.

That pattern is fragmenting. Now people are choosing mid-sized cities with diverse geography, strong but not overwhelming growth, and livability factors that go beyond just economics.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia—these are the new migration leaders. Not because they're the cheapest or the warmest, but because they offer balance.

Remote Work Changed Everything Permanently

The pandemic permanently altered where people can work. That freed millions of workers to choose location based on quality of life rather than proximity to an office.

North Carolina benefits enormously from this shift. It offers what remote workers want: affordability, geographic diversity, good schools, lower crime rates, and mid-sized city amenities.

As long as remote work remains common, migration patterns will favor markets like North Carolina over expensive coastal metros or even the traditional Sun Belt destinations that have become expensive and overcrowded.

Final Thoughts

North Carolina topping the migration list isn't just a data point. It's a signal about what Americans value when they have the freedom to choose where to live.

Affordability matters. Quality of life matters. Mid-sized cities matter. Geographic diversity matters. And markets that maintain balance between supply and demand matter.

Florida and Texas dominated migration for years because they offered something unique: opportunity without the cost penalty of coastal markets. But as they've grown more expensive, more congested, and more volatile (hurricanes in Florida, policy debates in Texas), their unique advantage has faded.

North Carolina offers what people are looking for now: opportunity with balance. Growth without chaos. Affordability that's real, not just relative to California.

For buyers, sellers, and investors, understanding this shift is critical. The markets that win in 2026 and beyond won't be the ones that won in 2020. They'll be the ones that offer what today's decision-makers actually want.

North Carolina proved that in 2025. And with projected population growth continuing for decades, it's positioned to keep proving it.

If you're thinking about buying, selling, or investing—whether in North Carolina, your current market, or anywhere else—the lesson is clear: Don't follow yesterday's migration patterns. Understand what's driving today's decisions.

Because the people who do well in real estate aren't the ones chasing where everyone used to go. They're the ones who understand where people are going next.

And right now, they're going to North Carolina.

Thinking about the North Carolina market or wondering what migration trends mean for your area? Let's discuss what the data shows