The 2.2 Month Supply Reality: What Rising Inventory Actually Means for Washington Buyers and Sellers in 2026

You've probably seen the headlines: "Inventory up 23% in Washington!" It sounds like the market is shifting. More homes on the market should mean more options, less competition, maybe even better deals.

But here's the part most headlines skip: we're still sitting at 2.2 months of supply. And that number tells a very different story.

If you're trying to figure out what the current market actually means for your next move, let's slow this down and look at what's really happening in King and Snohomish Counties right now.

Why "More Inventory" Isn't the Same as a Buyer's Market

The Numbers Everyone Is Talking About

According to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, active listings across the region increased 23% year-over-year as of December 2025. That's significant. We went from 9,524 active listings in December 2024 to 11,718 in December 2025.

At the same time, closed sales increased 4.1% year-over-year. More homes sold, not fewer.

So yes, there are more homes available. But there are also more buyers actively purchasing those homes.

What Months of Supply Actually Measures

Months of supply is the metric that matters most when you're trying to understand market balance. It answers a simple question: at the current pace of sales, how long would it take to sell every home currently on the market?

The formula is straightforward: divide active listings by the monthly sales rate.

Right now, that calculation puts us at 2.2 to 2.34 months of supply across the Northwest MLS service area.

Industry experts generally agree that a balanced market—where neither buyers nor sellers have a significant advantage—sits between 4 and 6 months of supply. Below 4 months favors sellers. Above 6 months favors buyers.

At 2.2 months, we're still well inside seller's market territory.

What the Current Inventory Levels Mean in King and Snohomish Counties

King County: 2.0 Months of Supply

King County, which includes Seattle, Bellevue, and surrounding areas, currently has 2.0 months of supply. That's slightly better than it was a year ago, but it's nowhere near balanced.

The median sale price in King County was $808,500 in December 2025. Homes are still moving quickly, and buyers in desirable neighborhoods are still facing competition.

Snohomish County: 1.61 Months of Supply

Snohomish County is even tighter. At 1.61 months of supply, it has one of the lowest inventory levels in the region.

The median sale price here was $730,000 in December 2025. This county continues to attract buyers looking for more space and relative affordability compared to King County—but "relative" is the key word. Competition remains strong.

The 4-6 Month Benchmark for Balance

To put these numbers in perspective: both King and Snohomish Counties would need to roughly double their current inventory levels just to reach the low end of a balanced market.

That doesn't mean it can't happen. But it does mean we're not there yet.

Why Inventory Rose But Competition Didn't Disappear

The Lock-In Effect Is Still Real

Many homeowners who purchased or refinanced between 2020 and 2022 are sitting on mortgage rates in the 3% to 4% range. Current rates, according to Freddie Mac, are hovering around 6.11% as of early February 2026.

That's a meaningful difference. For a lot of people, moving means more than just buying a new home—it means accepting a significantly higher monthly payment on a similar loan amount.

This dynamic keeps a large portion of potential sellers on the sidelines, which limits how much inventory can realistically grow in the near term.

Mortgage Rates Improved, Not Collapsed

Rates did come down from their 2023 highs above 7%. That improvement brought some buyers back into the market who had been waiting on the sidelines.

So while inventory increased, buyer activity increased too. The result is more transaction volume overall, but not necessarily a dramatic shift in market dynamics.

What This Means If You're Buying Right Now

You have more options than you did a year ago. That's real.

But you're still operating in a market where well-priced homes in desirable areas will attract multiple offers. You're still competing against other buyers who are also trying to take advantage of improved mortgage rates.

The difference now is that you might have a bit more time to think. Homes are spending slightly longer on the market compared to the frenzy of 2021 and 2022. You're not being forced into same-day decisions quite as often.

That breathing room matters. Use it to get clear on what you actually need, what your budget can handle long-term, and what neighborhoods make sense for your life five years from now—not just today.

This works today—but let's talk about five years from now.

What This Means If You're Selling Right Now

Your home will likely still sell. The market hasn't flipped.

But you do need to be more strategic than you would have been two years ago. Pricing matters more now. Condition matters more. Timing matters more.

Buyers have slightly more leverage than they did at the peak, which means overpricing can backfire. Homes that sit too long start to look stale, and once that happens, you're fighting an uphill battle.

The right approach is to price competitively from the start, make sure your home shows well, and understand that the market is still moving—just not at the same breakneck pace as before.

The Strategic Questions to Ask Instead

Instead of asking "Is this a buyer's market or seller's market?" ask these questions:

If you're buying:

• Can I afford this home if rates stay at 6% for the next few years?
• Does this property still make sense if the market cools another 5% to 10%?
• Am I buying this because it fits my life, or because I'm afraid of missing out?

If you're selling:

• What does my home need to compete with other listings in my price range right now?
• Am I pricing based on what I want, or what the current market will actually pay?
• What's my plan if the home doesn't sell in the first 30 days?

These are the questions that lead to decisions you won't regret later.

The market is shifting—slowly. Inventory is improving—gradually. But we're not in a buyer's market yet, and we might not get there anytime soon.

What matters most is understanding the current reality clearly enough to make a move that works for your situation, not just for today's headlines.

If you're trying to figure out what your next step should be in King or Snohomish County, let's talk through it. My job is to help you see the decision clearly—not to push you into one.

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