The Market Isn't Normalizing—It's Resetting (And Why ThatChanges Everything)

Everyone's calling 2026 a "return to normal."

Mortgage rates are stabilizing. Inventory's finally rising. Home price growth is slowing to something that looks reasonable—around 2% to 3% this year, roughly matching inflation. After years of chaos, the housing market is supposedly settling down.

Here's the problem: if you're waiting for things to go back to 2019, you're planning for a market that doesn't exist anymore.

What Most People Get Wrong About "Normal"

Let's slow this down for a second.

When people say the market is normalizing, what they really mean is it's becoming predictable again. And they're right about that part. We're not seeing 20% annual price jumps or bidding wars on every listing. The panic buying is over.

But predictable doesn't mean affordable. And it definitely doesn't mean we're going back to the old rules.

Here's the part most people miss: what we're entering isn't a return to normal—it's what Redfin is calling "The Great Housing Reset." That's not just a catchy phrase. It's a fundamentally different market structure that's going to last for years.

The Real Difference Between Normalizing and Resetting

A normalizing market means things bounce back to how they were. Prices cool off, buyers get leverage again, and we return to familiar patterns.

A market reset means the baseline itself has changed. The old expectations don't apply anymore because the fundamentals shifted permanently.

Think about it: mortgage rates are "stabilizing" around 6%. That's not normal—that's just consistent. Before 2020, anything over 5% would've been considered high. Now we're calling 6.3% stable and waiting for maybe—maybe—a dip below 6% by year-end.

Meanwhile, home prices hit a national record median of $360K in 2025. They're expected to rise another 2-4% in 2026. That's not a correction. That's not even a plateau. It's slower growth on top of an already elevated base.

So when someone tells you affordability is "improving," ask them: improving compared to what? Compared to the peak insanity of 2022? Sure. Compared to 2019? Not even close.

What This Actually Means for Your Decision

Here's where strategy matters more than timing.

In a normalizing market, you can wait for the right moment. Prices dip, rates drop, inventory opens up—you make your move when conditions favor you.

In a reset market, you're not waiting for better conditions. You're adapting to different conditions. The question isn't "when will it get easier?" It's "what works in this version of the market?"

This works today—but let's talk about five years from now. If you're planning to buy based on 2019 expectations, you're going to be waiting a long time. And while you wait, wages are rising faster than home prices for the first time in years. That's real. But it's gradual. We're talking about a slow improvement over multiple years, not a quick fix.

If your plan depends on rates dropping to 4% or prices falling 15%, you're betting against what every major forecast is telling us. It's possible. But it's not probable. And building a five-year plan on an improbable scenario is how people end up stuck.

The Part That's Easy to Overlook

The reset isn't just about prices or rates. It's about what people can actually do.

Inventory is up more than 20% year-over-year. That's great news—more options, less competition, better negotiating power. But it's still not enough inventory in most markets. The structural shortage didn't disappear. We're just less squeezed than we were.

Home sales are expected to rise 4-14% this year depending on who you ask. That sounds like a recovery. But compare it to pre-pandemic volume and we're still way behind. People aren't moving as much as they used to. The "lock-in effect"—people stuck in their 3% mortgages—hasn't gone away.

So yes, it's easier to buy in 2026 than it was in 2022. But if you're comparing it to 2015 or thinking this feels like a buyer's market, you're using the wrong measuring stick.

What Actually Makes Sense Right Now

If you're thinking about buying, here's what matters more than market timing: does the math work for you specifically, not theoretically?

Can you carry the payment comfortably for five years even if rates don't drop and your income stays flat? Does the home fit what you actually need, or are you stretching because you think it's your only shot? If the market shifts in six months—either direction—does this decision still make sense?

My job is to help you avoid the mistake you don't see yet. And right now, the biggest mistake isn't buying in the "wrong" market. It's buying with the wrong expectations.

People who expect a quick bounce back are going to feel stuck when it doesn't happen. People who plan for a long, slow reset can make decisions that work regardless of what the market does next.

The Bottom Line

The market isn't broken. It's just honest.

2026 isn't about waiting for normal to return. It's about understanding what this version of the market rewards: patience, realistic expectations, and decisions based on your actual situation instead of market predictions.

If you're trying to time the perfect moment, you're going to exhaust yourself. If you're trying to understand what works now and what that means five years out, we should talk.

Because the reset isn't coming—it's already here.